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inspired by The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableFallacies- Narrative & Confirmation
With the narrative fallacy, people want to reduce the content and then make logical connections between the sequence of events that led to the Black Swan events. The Confirmation Fallacy speaks of gov
14 saves- inspired by The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Triplet of Opacity 3: The Illusion of Fact
People tend to believe what they are told by people who have degrees and speak in an authoritarian manner. Often times academics takes matters into their own hands and creates models, spreadsheets, st
14 saves - inspired by The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Triplet of Opacity 2: Illusion of Understanding
Then there is an Illusion of Understanding... this is when people have the false sense of security in the belief that comprehending the world and all of its facets can predict how life will unfold. Th
8 saves - inspired by The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Ignorance and Shortcomings
Knowing our own shortcomings and trying to suss out what we are ignorant of goes a long way to protecting ourselves from the occurrences and effects of Black Swan events. It is not always possible to
11 saves - inspired by The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Fallacies- Ludic Fallacy
Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses fallacies that lead to Black Swan events. One of those is the Ludic Fallacy; the Ludic Fallacy is simply believing that real-life can be known by playing games that mim
8 saves - inspired by The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Scalable and Non-Scalable Factors
Collecting data and having knowledge allow a person to be able to predict outcomes. In order to properly assimilate the overwhelming amount of information that bombards humans every day taking into ac
9 saves - inspired by The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Triplet of Opacity 1: Retrospective Distortion
The expression, "those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it" coined by George Santayana, doesn't encompass the Triplet Opacity that Nassim Nicholas Taleb has observed in human nature.
8 saves - inspired by The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Black Swan
A black swan is a sudden and startling anomaly that Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses as a metaphor for a massive paradigm shift. It stems from the fact that people thought all swans were white and were shoc
16 saves
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